This tells us how far off the oddsmakers were at predicting the number of points scored.
The standard deviation for the over/under margin is taken from hundreds of games at each total.įor example, on a game with a total of 198 that ends with a final score of 98-86, the over/under margin would be 14. It includes the NFL, college football, the NBA, and college basketball.įirst, we’ll do our best to explain some of the terms we are using and exactly what they mean. You’ll find the results and our analysis of this research below. The results tell us how much variation we can expect at a given total based on past history.
Oddsmakers Accuracy With Over/Under Margins Based on the Actual Total We went back through hundreds of totals and ran the standard deviation on the over/under margin for each game.
How accurate are oddsmakers at setting totals as the size of the total rises? Our theory coming in was that as totals get bigger, oddsmaker accuracy would get worse.Īfter all, you would expect a greater margin for error with more points scored.
